predict earthquakes is always such a thing.
It could be most likely with a dilapidated house to compare - the house might collapse in 2 hours, 2 weeks or 20 years, more a structural engineer can not say. The catch is that tension and stress are not directly visible, only indirectly. The house might catch on the beams to bend, it fragmented or makes funny noises. For earthquakes it is also "bent bar", but with a few problems - first, the resolution of the instruments is poor, on the other hand, the tension builds often over thousands of years, you know sometimes that is not the initial state.
other words, the beams observed in the danger of a collapse in house two kilometers away and she does not even know if the bars are not even crooked, could indeed have been an aesthetic idea of the architect. It has no plans even witnesses who have ever been in the house. Then you might understand the problem of earthquake prediction.
this does not mean that it is completely impossible.
in Istanbul (more precisely, in the Marmara Fault system), there are new advances. By precise measurement of the slip fault rates were geophysicists develop models that indicate areas of conflict - a "by curved beams":
The last time it wobbled 1766, since then, the accumulated tension. Probably this will be discharged rather in a series of small earthquakes at some point, but this is not a big cause for reassurance. The main problem is the City itself: Istanbul has 15 million inhabitants and an estimated up to 85% of the buildings are built illegally.
Here there is the whole paper.
Here there is an article about it in the mirror ... is somewhat questionable, however. How do Turkish engineers figure out the same as 150 000 deaths, is beyond me.
(via Rapid Uplift )
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